January 25, 2021

Global markets climb as investors focus on bank earnings and Yellen testimony

[] Global markets climb as investors focus on bank earnings and Yellen testimony | Fortune© 2020 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our u003ca href="https://fortune.com/terms-of-use/">Terms of Useu003c/a> and u003ca href="https://fortune.com/privacy-policy/">Privacy Policyu003c/a> | u003ca href="/california-privacy-policy/#notice">CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Noticeu003c/a> | u003ca href="https://fortune.com/right-to-opt-out/">Do Not Sell My Personal Informationu003c/a> | u003ca href="http://preferences-mgr.trustarc.com/?pid=fortunemedia01&aid=fortunemedia01_pub&type=fortunemedia">Ad Choices u003c/a>u003cbr />nFORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.u003cbr />nQuotes delayed at least 15 minutes. 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u003cp>u003cem>This is the web version of the Bull Sheet, Fortune's no-BS daily newsletter on the markets. u003c/em>u003ca href="http://bullsheet.fortune.com/">u003cem>Sign up to receive it in your inbox hereu003c/em>u003c/a>u003cem>.u003c/em>u003c/p> u003cp>Good morning, and welcome back! u003c/p>u003cp>u003c!-- piano selector -->u003c/p>u003cdiv class="paywall"> u003cp>After a weak showing last week, U.S. futures and global stocks are moving higher this morning as we head into a busy stretch for corporate earnings. Below, I offer a primer on what to look for. Oh, and Postscript is back. Reader warning: it involves food.u003c/p> u003cp>But first, let's see what's moving markets. u003c/p> u003ch2>Markets updateu003c/h2> u003ch4>Asiau003c/h4> u003cul>u003cli>The major u003cstrong>Asia indexesu003c/strong> are mixed in afternoon trading with Hong Kong's u003cstrong>Hang Seng u003c/strong>up u003cstrong>2.7%u003c/strong>. u003c/li>u003cli>China's economy grew u003cstrong>2.3%u003c/strong> last year, helped by a strong Q4 surge. China is now on pace to overtake the United States as the u003cstrong>world's biggest economyu003c/strong> by 2026, u003cem>Fortuneu003c/em>'s Naomi Xu Elegant u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/01/18/chinas-2020-gdp-world-no-1-economy-us/">reportsu003c/a>.u003c/li>u003cli>The u003cstrong>World Economic Forumu003c/strong> is out with its annual risks report, and the 2021 version u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/01/19/world-economic-forum-risk-report-covid-economic-crisis/">makes for tough readingu003c/a>. What could be on tap in the years to come? A bleak youth precariat and state collapse (along with the usual doom-and-gloom about the climate crisis).u003c/li>u003c/ul> u003ch4>Europeu003c/h4> u003cul>u003cli>The u003cstrong>European boursesu003c/strong> were broadly higher in early trading with the u003cstrong>Stoxx Europe 600u003c/strong> up u003cstrong>0.5%u003c/strong> at the open. u003c/li>u003cli>u003cstrong>COVID-19u003c/strong> u003ca href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/europe-s-firms-face-720-billion-capital-gap-to-fund-recovery?srnd=premium-europe&sref=WtHiUFSX">has leftu003c/a> a u003cstrong>€600 billion holeu003c/strong> in the balance sheet of European companies, a prominent trade associate warns, an argument for Brussels to prepare yet another stimulus package.u003c/li>u003cli>Shares in u003cstrong>Stellantisu003c/strong>, the newly merged Fiat-Peugeot alliance, officially u003ca href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-stellantis-deal-shares/stellantis-shares-rise-on-debut-in-milan-and-paris-idUKKBN29N0PT">started tradingu003c/a> yesterday in Paris and Milan under the ticker, STLA. It closed nearly u003cstrong>8%u003c/strong> higher on Monday. Auto stocks, meanwhile, were flat on Tuesday after data u003ca href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-19/europe-car-sales-drop-most-on-record-in-year-bedeviled-by-virus?sref=WtHiUFSX">showed car salesu003c/a> fell last year by a record-breaking u003cstrong>24%u003c/strong>.u003c/li>u003c/ul> u003ch4>U.S.u003c/h4> u003cul>u003cli>u003cstrong>U.S. futures u003c/strong>have been edging up all morning, with all three exchanges poised to start the week in the green.u003c/li>u003cli>A recap: The u003cstrong>Dow, S&P u003c/strong>andu003cstrong> Nasdaqu003c/strong> all finished lower last week, the u003ca href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/stock-market-today-liv.html">worst showing since Octoberu003c/a>.u003c/li>u003cli>u003cstrong>Janet Yellenu003c/strong> will u003ca href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-debt-question-facing-janet-yellen-how-much-is-too-much-11610993908?mod=hp_lead_pos5">testify todayu003c/a> before the u003cstrong>Senate Finance Committeeu003c/strong> (the same group that will cast a decisive vote on her Treasury Secretary candidacy), and the big question will be: just u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/01/18/biden-economic-plan-us-debt-interest-rates/">how much debtu003c/a> can the U.S. afford to rack up to get out of this economic crisis?u003c/li>u003cli>On the earnings calendar today we have: u003ca href="https://fortune.com/company/bank-of-america/" target="_blank">Bank of Americau003c/a>, u003ca href="https://fortune.com/company/halliburton/" target="_blank">Halliburtonu003c/a> and u003ca href="https://fortune.com/company/netflix/" target="_blank">Netflixu003c/a>, to name a few.u003c/li>u003c/ul> u003ch4>Elsewhereu003c/h4> u003cul>u003cli>u003cstrong>Goldu003c/strong> is up, trading around u003cstrong>$1,840/ounceu003c/strong>.u003c/li>u003cli>The u003cstrong>dollaru003c/strong> is slightly lower. u003c/li>u003cli>u003cstrong>Crudeu003c/strong> is up a touch, with u003cstrong>Brent u003c/strong>trading around u003cstrong>$55/barrelu003c/strong>. u003c/li>u003cli>u003cstrong>Bitcoinu003c/strong> is u003cstrong>up 3.2% u003c/strong>in the past 24 hours to u003cstrong>$37,100u003c/strong>, but trade has been choppy for the past 10 days. u003c/li>u003c/ul> u003cp class="has-text-align-center">***u003c/p> u003ch2>Earnings seasonu003c/h2> u003cp>This week and next make up the busiest stretch of earnings season. The last of the big banks report this week, and next week we get a wave of Big Tech results. In fact, firms representing more than half of the S&P 500 market cap will report between January 25 and February 5, u003ca href="https://fortune.com/company/goldman-sachs-group/" target="_blank">Goldman Sachsu003c/a> calculates.u003c/p> u003cp>Throughout much of 2020, COVID-ravaged companies repeatedly threw in the towel and declined to give investors a full outlook. That won't be tolerated this year. u003c/p> u003cp>Here's what else you should be looking for. u003c/p> u003cp>The Q4 2020-to-Q4-2019 comparison will be brutal. Across the S&P 500, Goldman predicts, EPS is expected to have fallen by 11% (take energy out of the equation, and it's merely bad—an EPS decline of 8% year-on-year.) But there will be some bottom-line winners from the likes of health care, IT and materials. u003c/p> u003cfigure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized">u003cimg data-src="https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Screen-Shot-2021-01-19-at-9.19.56-AM.png?w=1024" alt="" class="lazyload wp-image-2940883" width="522" height="350"/>u003c/figure> u003cp>Looking forward, investors should focus on the full-year 2021 estimate, and compare that with the pre-pandemic full-year 2019 performance, Goldman advises. By that measure, the S&P looks a bit better going forward. The median company in the S&P is expected to post a 2019-21 EPS growth rate of +4%.u003c/p> u003cfigure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized">u003cimg data-src="https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Screen-Shot-2021-01-19-at-9.16.43-AM.png?w=1024" alt="" class="lazyload wp-image-2940884" width="522" height="350"/>u003c/figure> u003cp>So, a return to growth is in the offing, which supports Goldman's view that the benchmark S&P will climb to 4300 by year-end.u003c/p> u003cp>We'll know soon enough if that's plausible.u003c/p> u003cp>***u003c/p> u003ch2>Postscript u003c/h2> u003cp>A longtime Bull Sheet reader sent me a note over the weekend with a simple request. The email subject line read, “Minestrone Soup.”u003c/p> u003cp>One of the most memorable “authentic” minestrone soup meals he’d ever had, he explained, was at a Roman u003cem>pensioneu003c/em> years ago. “Any chance,” he asked, “you could publicise a good recipe for same in your column?”u003c/p> u003cp>Soup S.O.S. u003c/p> u003cp>This, I knew, would be a job for Postscript.  “Certainly,” I responded. u003c/p> u003cp>I have to admit, I thought this would be a simple task. That was before I fell down a rabbit hole of minestrone recipes. You see, Italian families live off minestrone soup from September to May. Come meal time, it’s a go-to u003cem>primou003c/em>. (A reminder: no Italian meal is complete without the trinity: u003cem>primo-secondo-vinou003c/em>.)u003c/p> u003cp>Sitting in the kitchen on Sunday afternoon, I consulted two experts sources on the matter: the u003cem>Cucina Italianau003c/em> cookbook and Xtina, my wife. The Italians have countless recipes for minestrone; there are more than two dozen in the very first cookbook I picked up. The ingredients depend on the time of year, what’s in the garden/at the local farmer’s market, and what goes best with the pasta of choice for the soup, the u003cem>minestrau003c/em>.u003c/p> u003cp>As my wife explained, Italians have real reverence for the minestrone as a u003cem>primou003c/em>. Just as your financial manager would never advise you load up your portfolio with nothing but growth stocks, Italians would never think of serving u003cem>pastasciuttau003c/em> (or, dry pasta) at every meal. Besides, you can find a decent dish of u003cem>pastasciuttau003c/em> anywhere in Italy. A good minestrone is harder to come by.u003c/p> u003cp>Here’s how we do the minestrone at Casa Warner:u003c/p> u003cp>We start with three humble vegetables: the potato, u003cem>zucchineu003c/em> and carrot. In the autumn, we might substitute in u003cem>zuccau003c/em>, or sweet pumpkin. In the autumn, it could be u003cem>bietau003c/em>, or chard.u003c/p> u003cp>The key, my wife stresses, is to start with a nice, simple u003cem>sofritou003c/em>. Pour in a bit of olive oil and diced onions (some suggest a laurel leaf; we don't), and let them cook into a nice sweet, aromatic base. Then drop your cubed veg into the pot, adding a bit of water or broth as you go. (We stick with good old Roman tap water.) Oh, and don’t forget the salt. When the vegetables have cooked for a good hour, take a u003ca href="https://www.amazon.com/s?k=immersion+blender+for+soup&ref=nb_sb_noss_1">little hand blenderu003c/a> and, u003cem>zapu003c/em>, transform your floating, boiling veg into a thick broth. To give it more heft, go with more potatoes at the start. (White beans work great too, but that requires a bit more preparation.)u003c/p> u003cp>The next step: chuck in your u003cem>minestrau003c/em> pasta, and serve with a dollop of olive oil and a coating of u003cem>Parmigiano Reggianou003c/em>.u003c/p> u003cp>Years ago, on a trip to Tuscany one frigid February weekend, I discovered the local dish, the u003cem>ribollitau003c/em>. We make it a couple times each winter. It's one of my favorites. As the name suggests, it gets better every time you re-heat it and ladle it into your bowl.u003c/p> u003cp>The u003cem>ribollitau003c/em> calls for a much more involved recipe as you have to source pig bones to make the broth, plus a couple different types of cabbage. If you’re interested in that recipe, let me know.   u003c/p> u003cp>***u003c/p> u003cp>Have a nice day, everyone. I'll see you here tomorrow... Until then, there's more news below.u003c/p> u003cp>u003cstrong>Bernhard Warneru003c/strong>u003cbr>u003ca href="https://twitter.com/BernhardWarner">@BernhardWarneru003c/a>u003cbr>u003ca href="mailto:Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.com">Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.comu003c/a>u003c/p> u003cp>u003cem>As always, you can write to u003c/em>u003ca href="mailto:bullsheet@fortune.com">u003cem>bullsheet@fortune.comu003c/em>u003c/a>u003cem> or reply to this email with suggestions and feedback.u003c/em>u003c/p> u003ch3>Today’s readsu003c/h3>nu003cp>u003cstrong>u003cspan style="font-size: 1.125rem;letter-spacing: 0.035rem">At the corner of Main Street and Wall Street.u003c/span>u003c/strong>u003cspan style="font-size: 1.125rem;letter-spacing: 0.035rem"> On JPMorgan Chase’s analyst call last Friday, u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/01/15/jpmorgan-chase-earnings-call-jamie-dimon-jpm-stock/">a number of revealing detailsu003c/a> about the health of America’s biggest bank and the wider U.S. economy came clear. For starters, there’s a widening gulf between the consumer and corporate bosses. “Consumer confidence is still low, and CEO confidence is high,” says CFO Jennifer Piepszak. That’s an ominous sign for the recovery.u003c/span>u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cstrong>Thieves in the night.u003c/strong> At a tiny museum in the Dutch town of Leerdam you can usually find a small painting by the 17th-Century Master Frans Hals called, “u003cstrong>Two Laughing Boys with a Mug of Beeru003c/strong>.” The problem is thieves have again swiped the work, the third time it’s gone missing over the years. The art world is puzzled why this particular painting is u003ca href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/arts/design/frans-hals-stolen-painting.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210119&instance_id=26146&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=98388389§ion=longRead&segment_id=49651&te=1&user_id=c3b74980f8a9936861166f69f4eb95d1">so highly sought by thievesu003c/a>. Perhaps it’s the u003cstrong>$10 million valuationu003c/strong>.u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cb>Diamonds are forever. u003c/b>At these prices, they’d better be. At a recent auction, DeBeers had u003ca href="https://www.bloomberg.com/europe?sref=WtHiUFSX">jacked upu003c/a> diamond prices by u003cstrong>5%u003c/strong>, its biggest hike in years, for stones bigger than 1 carat. Bull Sheeters, no doubt, don’t mess with anything under a few carats.u003c/p>nu003cp> u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cem>Some of these stories require a subscription to access. There is a discount offer for our loyal readers if you u003ca href="https://fortune.com/subscribe/">use this linku003c/a> to sign up. Thank you for supporting our journalismu003c/em>.u003c/p>nu003ch3>Market candyu003c/h3>nu003cp>u003cstrong>Quiz Timeu003c/strong>u003c/p>nu003cp>Which exchange and/or index is outperforming all others, the world over?u003c/p>nu003cul>nu003cli>u003cstrong>A. Kospi (South Korea)u003c/strong>u003c/li>nu003cli>u003cstrong>B. IPSA (Chile)u003c/strong>u003c/li>nu003cli>u003cstrong>C. Russell 2000 (USA)u003c/strong>u003c/li>nu003cli>u003cstrong>D. Nikkei (Japan)u003c/strong>u003c/li>nu003c/ul>nu003cp>It’s u003cstrong>Bu003c/strong>, Chile’s IPSA, up 9.4% so far YTD. Wild FX swings between the dollar and the Chilean peso are partly driving the gains.u003c/p>nu003c/div>n"},"children":[]}]}]},{"name":"dianomi","config":{"type":"footer"},"children":[]}]}]}]}},"componentData":{},"error":null,"loading":false,"player":{"currentTime":0,"duration":0,"loading":false,"playing":false,"seek":0,"src":"","visible":false,"volume":0.5},"route":{"status":200,"redirectTo":"","redirectStatus":0,"action":"PUSH","pathname":"/2021/01/19/global-markets-climb-as-investors-focus-on-bank-earnings-and-yellen-testimony/","search":"?","hash":""},"visible":{"search":false,"primaryNav":false,"freestar":false,"adminBar":false},"contactForm":{"submitting":false,"submitted":false,"failed":false,"validation":{},"redirect":""},"user":{"isLoggedIn":false,"accessLevel":null}}; ]]> Source

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