March 21, 2021

Why football is worth $100 billion to cable TV

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","type":"post"},"children":[{"name":"byline","config":{"link":"https://fortune.com/author/shawn-tully/","name":"Shawn Tully"},"children":[]},{"name":"image","config":{"aspectRatio":0.6666666666666666,"attachmentId":2958290,"alt":"Rising Interest Rates-Graph Concept","caption":"Rising interest rates could be a killer for stocks.","crops":[],"height":1920,"imageSize":"article-sidebar","lazyload":true,"lqipSrc":"https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Rising-Interest-Rates-Graph-Concept-GettyImages-1303546981.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40","postId":2958044,"retina":true,"showCaption":false,"sources":[{"default":true,"transforms":{"resize":[130,86]},"descriptor":100}],"sourceTags":[],"src":"https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Rising-Interest-Rates-Graph-Concept-GettyImages-1303546981.jpg","srcset":"https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Rising-Interest-Rates-Graph-Concept-GettyImages-1303546981.jpg?resize=260,172 200w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Rising-Interest-Rates-Graph-Concept-GettyImages-1303546981.jpg?resize=130,86 100w","url":"https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Rising-Interest-Rates-Graph-Concept-GettyImages-1303546981.jpg","useBasicImg":false,"usingDataFallback":false,"width":2880,"fallbackImageUrl":"data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7","picture":false,"sizes":"100px"},"children":[]},{"name":"byline","config":{"link":"https://fortune.com/author/shawn-tully/","name":"Shawn Tully"},"children":[]}]}]},{"name":"advertising-slot","config":{"align":"center","lazyload":true,"useDynamicChannel":false,"placementName":"RightRailFlex_Articles","slotId":"RightRailFlex_Articles1","themeName":"article","targeting":{"placement_name":"RightRailFlex_Articles","index":2}},"children":[]},{"name":"dianomi","config":{"type":"sidebar"},"children":[]},{"name":"advertising-slot","config":{"align":"center","lazyload":true,"useDynamicChannel":false,"placementName":"RightRailFlex_Articles","slotId":"RightRailFlex_Articles2","themeName":"article","targeting":{"placement_name":"RightRailFlex_Articles","index":3}},"children":[]}]},{"name":"article-media","config":{"publishDate":"","type":"image","section":"Newsletters"},"children":[{"name":"image","config":{"aspectRatio":0.6666666666666666,"attachmentId":2968187,"alt":"2021 super bowl","caption":"TV networks and Amazon are spending $100 billion for the next decade of rights to air NFL football games.","crops":[],"height":1377,"imageSize":"article-featured-image","lazyload":true,"lqipSrc":"https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GettyImages-1231057009.jpg?quality=60&resize=60,40","postId":2968180,"retina":true,"showCaption":true,"sources":[{"transforms":{"resize":[750,500]},"descriptor":750,"media":{"min":"lg"}},{"transforms":{"resize":[500,333.34]},"descriptor":500,"media":{"min":"md"}},{"transforms":{"resize":[375,250]},"descriptor":375,"media":{"max":"md"}}],"sourceTags":[],"src":"https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GettyImages-1231057009.jpg","srcset":"https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GettyImages-1231057009.jpg?resize=1500,1000 1500w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GettyImages-1231057009.jpg?resize=750,500 750w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GettyImages-1231057009.jpg?resize=1000,666 1000w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GettyImages-1231057009.jpg?resize=500,333 500w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GettyImages-1231057009.jpg?resize=750,500 750w,https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GettyImages-1231057009.jpg?resize=375,250 375w","url":"https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GettyImages-1231057009.jpg","useBasicImg":false,"usingDataFallback":false,"width":2048,"credit":"Xinhua–Wu Xiaoling via Getty Images","fallbackImageUrl":"data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7","picture":false,"sizes":"(min-width: 64rem) 750px,(min-width: 48rem) 500px,(max-width: 48rem) 375px,100vw"},"children":[]}]},{"name":"article-body","config":{"mediaType":"image","premiumCategory":"P-Newsletter"},"children":[{"name":"gutenberg-content","config":{},"children":[{"name":"html","config":{"content":" u003cp>u003cem>This is the web version of u003ca rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://mynewsletters.fortune.com/data-sheet" target="_blank">Data Sheetu003c/a>, a daily newsletter on the business of tech. Sign up to get it delivered free to your inbox. u003c/em>u003c/p> u003cp>The evolution of television is one of the great business stories of our time. From the big three networks to dozens of cable channels to hundreds of cable channels to thousands of streamable shows to…what next?u003c/p> u003ca href="https://fortune.com/company/2875077" target="_blank">u003c/a>nu003cp>u003c!-- piano selector -->u003c/p>nu003cdiv class="paywall">n u003cp>Relentless price hikes combined with brilliant innovation in streaming led to a decade of cord-cutting. The number of households paying for cable will go from over 100 million to only 50 million in just another few years, longtime industry analyst Michael Nathanson forecast in a report today. That's just a continuation of the current 4% to 5% annual rate of decline. And Nathanson thinks 20 million or so of the departees effectively will still pay for cable via an online service like u003ca href="https://fortune.com/company/youtube" target="_blank">YouTubeu003c/a> TV or u003ca href="https://fortune.com/company/hulu" target="_blank">Huluu003c/a> Live TV. u003c/p> u003cp>Meanwhile, streaming services like u003ca href="https://fortune.com/company/netflix" target="_blank">Netflixu003c/a> and Disney+ u003ca href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2021-03-18/streaming-milestone-global-subscriptions-passed-1-billion-last-year-mpa-theme-report">passed 1 billion subscriptionsu003c/a> in total last year for the first time. At some point, the cord-cutting decline will sink the whole old-fashioned cable industry completely. But not yet.u003c/p> u003cp>The latest evidence of the perhaps surprising strength of the cable ecosystem comes to us courtesy of the National Football League. The league's $46 billion worth of deals with Disney, u003ca href="https://fortune.com/company/fox" target="_blank">Foxu003c/a>, CBS, and NBC are almost up. Surely airing football games on cable TV must be worth less now that tens of millions of viewers have fled? Nope. The NFL's renewed pacts total more than $100 billion, Nathanson reports, though there are a few new twists.u003c/p> u003cp>Each network gets rights to stream their games online, something only CBS could do under the old deals. And there's a new player on the field for this round: u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/03/18/amazon-stream-thursday-night-nfl-football-games/">Amazon grabbed full rights to gamesu003c/a> on Thursday night. Though the e-commerce company had some streaming rights in recent years, traditional networks had controlled the broadcast rights and produced the games for air. Oh, and the deals also include the right to partner on legal betting, too. That might end up mattering a whole lot more to the economics of the deals than anyone foresees today.u003c/p> u003cp>But why is football worth so much to cable? It's one of the oldest customer segmentation strategies around: If your best customers are willing to pay more, find ways to charge them more. See Apple's development of the iPhone X or Tesla's Model S Plaid. Among the most loyal customers left for paid TV are fans of live sports, particularly football. Expect cable rates to go up to cover the cost of the new football deals. u003c/p> u003cp>On the other hand, as those hardcore fans pay more, less devoted sports fans will keep on defecting. Doesn't sound like a winning strategy for much longer.u003c/p> u003cp>u003cstrong>Aaron Pressmanu003c/strong>u003cbr>u003ca href="https://twitter.com/ampressman?lang=en">@ampressmanu003c/a>u003cbr>u003ca href="mailto:aaron.pressman@fortune.com">aaron.pressman@fortune.comu003c/a>u003c/p> u003cp>***u003c/p> u003cp>u003cem>What exactly is Clubhouse? The next big thing, or the latest flash in the pan? On this week’s Brainstorm podcast episode, hosts Michal Lev-Ram and Brian O’Keefe ask Fortune’s Danielle Abril to show them around the app and explain the hype. Jon Sakoda, founding partner of venture-capital firm Decibel Partners, explains how Clubhouse is the perfect app for pandemic life. And Eliran Sapir, founder and CEO of Apptopia, discusses how social media startups manage to stick around, despite the competition, and how Clubhouse appears to be measuring up. u003ca rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank" href="https://link.chtbl.com/FortuneBrainstormPodcast?sid=Newsletter">Listen to the podcast here.u003c/a>u003c/em>u003c/p> u003ch3>NEWSWORTHYu003c/h3>nu003cp>u003cstrong>Unsafe at any speedu003c/strong>. Home exercise equipment can be dangerous. u003cstrong>Pelotonu003c/strong> issued a warning on Thursday u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/03/18/peloton-treadmill-accident-warning-death-of-child/">asking customers to take careu003c/a> using its treadmills after an incident in which a child died. “While we are aware of only a small handful of incidents involving the Tread+ where children have been hurt, each one is devastating to all of us at Peloton, and our hearts go out to the families involved,” CEO John Foley said.u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cstrong>Pressure drop a drop on youu003c/strong>. Tech stocks, particularly some of 2020’s highest flying tech stocks, u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/03/18/jitters-grip-tech-stocks-as-bond-yields-spike/">continue to get hammeredu003c/a> in the market amid concerns that rising bond yields will curb their value. On Thursday, u003cstrong>Squareu003c/strong> and u003cstrong>Snapu003c/strong> lost 9%, u003cstrong>Teslau003c/strong>, u003cstrong>Pinterestu003c/strong> and u003cstrong>Rokuu003c/strong> dropped 7%, u003cstrong>Zoomu003c/strong> and u003cstrong>Snowflakeu003c/strong> fell 6%, and u003cstrong>PayPalu003c/strong>, u003cstrong>Twitteru003c/strong>, and u003cstrong>Pelotonu003c/strong> lost 5%. Most other sectors fared better and the S&P 500 Index lost only about 1%. Still, tech investors shouldn’t feel too bad. At least they didn’t buy a u003cstrong>non-fungible tokenu003c/strong> u003ca href="https://nypost.com/2021/03/18/nyc-man-sells-fart-for-85-cashing-in-on-nft-craze/">linked to sound clipsu003c/a> of a film director passing gas. “If people are selling digital art and GIFs, why not sell farts?” Alex Ramírez-Mallis tells the u003cem>New York Postu003c/em>. And if the door is open to fart jokes, let’s not miss the chance to mention that the founders of poop-testing startup u003cstrong>uBiomeu003c/strong> u003ca href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Couple-who-ran-poop-testing-firm-in-Silicon-16037189.php">have been chargedu003c/a> with securities fraud and money laundering. It’s a smelly mess on this Friday morning for sure.u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cstrong>Everything I wantedu003c/strong>. Plenty of tech CEO verbiage to mull over this morning. u003cstrong>Appleu003c/strong> boss Tim Cook was pushing his back-to-office mantra u003ca href="https://people.com/human-interest/apple-ceo-tim-cook-expects-return-to-office-post-pandemic/">in an interview withu003c/a> u003cem>Peopleu003c/em>. “I can’t wait,” he says. u003cstrong>Facebooku003c/strong> CEO Mark Zuckerberg u003ca href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/zuckerberg-facebook-may-be-in-stronger-position-after-apple-ios-14.html">popped up on Clubhouseu003c/a> to argue that the company will be in “a good position” despite Apple’s looming privacy enhancements on the iPhone. According to new leaks, the two companies are also bulking up for the coming battle over augmented reality glasses. Facebook has a prototype wristband u003ca href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/facebook-unveils-further-details-about-its-mystery-virtual-ar-neural-wristband-controller/">to act as an AR controlleru003c/a>. And Apple u003ca href="https://www.macrumors.com/2021/03/18/apple-mixed-reality-headset-eye-tracking/">is working onu003c/a> eyeball tracking for its gear.u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cstrong>The past is never past.u003c/strong> Old tweets did in the newly-named leader of u003cem>Teen Vogueu003c/em>. Alexi McCammond, hired away from Axios by u003cstrong>Conde Nastu003c/strong> two weeks ago, u003ca href="http://ago containing slurs against gays and Asians. https://www.wsj.com/articles/alexi-mccammond-teen-vogue-part-ways-over-racist-homophobic-tweets-11616117037?mod=hp_lista_pos2">will not take over as editoru003c/a> of the publication. She faced criticism over posts from a decade ago containing homophobic and racist content.u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cstrong>Searching for new digs.u003c/strong> Things are getting a little tight at the Googleplex despite all the people working from home. u003cstrong>Googleu003c/strong> u003ca href="http://v">says it will spendu003c/a> another $7 billion and create 10,000 more jobs this year, including $1 billion on a new campus in Silicon Valley, more cloud data centers, and new offices in Oregon, Minnesota, and Texas. “Coming together in person to collaborate and build community is core to Google’s culture, CEO Sundar Pichai u003ca href="https://blog.google/inside-google/company-announcements/investing-america-2021/">says in a blog postu003c/a> announcing the investments. In other big real estate plays, ‘lectric pickup maker u003cstrong>Rivianu003c/strong> u003ca href="https://electrek.co/2021/03/18/rivian-reveals-map-planned-fast-charging-stations-wall-charger/">unveiled a mapu003c/a> of its planned charging station network. The goal is to open more than 600 stations by the end of 2023.u003c/p>nu003ch3>FOOD FOR THOUGHTu003c/h3>nu003cp>Automation is often pitched as a cost-saving tactic. That was certainly the idea behind using more drones in the Air Force. Simpler hardware, fewer pilots, lower costs. But the Air Force u003ca href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/03/11/why-taking-pilots-out-of-planes-has-been-more-expensive-than-anticipated">has ended up spending a lot moreu003c/a> on drones, as u003cem>The Economistu003c/em> explains:u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cem>A recent study by the RAND Corporation, another think-tank, notes that drones, by feeding back full-motion video, largely replaced the human targeters who in previous wars had been needed on the ground to guide air strikes. Yet precisely because drones generate so much intelligence, they require more humans to analyse it all—at least until artificial intelligence is good enough to do the job.u003c/em>u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cem>Doing away with the humans is hard. At present, keeping a single Predator or Reaper drone above a given target around the clock requires four drones, and thus 49 people in mission control and 59 more, most of them for maintenance, in the local “launch and recovery” area where the drone is operating.u003c/em>u003c/p>nu003ch3>FOR YOUR WEEKEND READING PLEASUREu003c/h3>nu003cp>A few great long reads I came across this week:u003c/p>nu003cp>u003ca href="https://decrypt.co/60394/nft-craze-easy-money-hard-copyright-questions">u003cstrong>The NFT Craze Offers Easy Money—And Hard Copyright Questionsu003c/strong>u003c/a> (Decrypt)u003cbr />NFTs are giving rise to new forms of copyright infringement, but could also provide artists with a means to earn more money on the Internet.u003c/p>nu003cp>u003ca href="https://www.theverge.com/22331972/pay-equity-now-pledge-katie-moussouris-microsoft-lawsuit">u003cstrong>Mind the gapu003c/strong>u003c/a> (The Verge)u003cbr />After a bruising lawsuit with Microsoft, Katie Moussouris is fighting for fair pay.u003c/p>nu003cp>u003ca href="https://restofworld.org/2021/inside-israels-lucrative-and-secretive-cybersurveillance-talent-pipeline/">u003cstrong>Inside Israel’s lucrative—and secretive—cybersurveillance industryu003c/strong>u003c/a> (Rest of World)u003cbr />The country’s hacking software is recognized the world over. Not everyone thinks it’s a good thing.u003c/p>nu003cp>u003ca href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/arts/design/maya-lin-smith-college-daniel-wolf.html">u003cstrong>For Maya Lin, a Victory Lap Gives Way to Mourningu003c/strong>u003c/a> (u003cem>New York Timesu003c/em>)u003cbr />The Neilson Library at Smith College, which Lin redesigned, is interwoven with her own life story. But any triumph is muted by the sudden death of her husband, Daniel Wolf.u003c/p>nu003ch3>IN CASE YOU MISSED ITu003c/h3>nu003cp>u003cstrong>u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/03/18/coinbase-takes-to-reddit/">Coinbase takes to Redditu003c/a>u003c/strong> u003cem>By Lucinda Shenu003c/em>u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cstrong>u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/03/18/covid-vaccine-rollout-us-online-vaccination-signup/">Online sign-ups made the U.S. vaccine rollout less fair. Here’s how to fix themu003c/a>u003c/strong> u003cem>By David Z. Morrisu003c/em>u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cstrong>u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/03/18/nft-art-crypto-marketplace-opensea-amazon/">Crypto marketplace OpenSea raises $23 million to be the ‘Amazon of NFTs’u003c/a>u003c/strong> u003cem>By Robert Hackettu003c/em>u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cstrong>u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/03/18/how-to-watch-stream-march-madness-2021-games-live-online-free-without-cable-ncaa-college-basketball-2021-what-channel-cbs-tbs-tnt-trutv/">March Madness 2021: How to watch and stream NCAA Tournament games online for free—even without cableu003c/a>u003c/strong> u003cem>By Chris Morrisu003c/em>u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cstrong>u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/03/19/covid-vaccine-passports-coming-soon-airport-near-you/">Like it or not, vaccine passports are coming soon to an airport near youu003c/a>u003c/strong> u003cem>By Grady McGregoru003c/em>u003c/p>nu003cp>u003cstrong>u003ca href="https://fortune.com/2021/03/18/talent-pipeline-diversity-equity-inclusion/">How to build the talent pipeline for people of coloru003c/a>u003c/strong> u003cem>By Jeffrey J. Brown and Harry L. Williamsu003c/em>u003c/p>nu003cp>(u003cem>Some of these stories require a subscription to access. Thank you for supporting our journalismu003c/em>.)u003c/p>nu003ch3>BEFORE YOU GOu003c/h3>nu003cp>Junior workers on Wall Street get paid buckets of money in return for working insane hours to build the spreadsheets and PowerPoints that can justify all the latest SPAC mergers and such. But 13 first-year analysts at Goldman Sachs developed a very different u003ca href="https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rSEzNw9cve9E/v0">11-slide PowerPointu003c/a> that’s spreading all over on social media. After self-surveying, they’ve cooked up charts showing that they worked an average of 98 hours per week in 2021, that their mental health has sharply deteriorated, and that 77% feel they have been victims of abuse in the workplace.u003c/p>nu003cp>As u003cem>Bloombergu003c/em> columnist Matt Levine noted, at least the unhappy first years have perfectly adopted the Goldman template for presentations, right down to the firm’s blue color scheme, san serif font, and logo box in the top left corner of every page. “If you put together a horrifying presentation that really looks like an official Goldman Sachs deck, and then share it on social media, it will go viral and your bosses will have to take it seriously,” he concludes.u003c/p>nu003c/div>n"},"children":[]}]}]},{"name":"dianomi","config":{"type":"footer"},"children":[]}]}]}]}},"componentData":{},"error":null,"loading":false,"player":{"currentTime":0,"duration":0,"loading":false,"playing":false,"seek":0,"src":"","visible":false,"volume":0.5},"route":{"status":200,"redirectTo":"","redirectStatus":0,"action":"PUSH","pathname":"/2021/03/19/can-a-100-billion-football-deal-save-the-cable-industry/","search":"?","hash":""},"visible":{"search":false,"primaryNav":false,"freestar":false,"adminBar":false},"contactForm":{"submitting":false,"submitted":false,"failed":false,"validation":{},"redirect":""},"user":{"isLoggedIn":false,"accessLevel":null}}; ]]> response.json()) .then(function (data) { signPackage = data; wx.config(data); wx.ready(function () { wx.updateTimelineShareData({ title: title, link: url, imgUrl: img, success: function () {}, cancel: function () {} }); wx.updateAppMessageShareData({ title: title, desc: desc, link: url, imgUrl: img, success: function () {}, cancel: function () {} }); wx.error(function (res) { //location.href = g_url; }); }); }) } }; script.src = "https://res.wx.qq.com/open/js/jweixin-1.6.0.js"; document.head.appendChild(script); } ]]> You need to enable JavaScript to view this site.
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